TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 2:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns each player achieves during the match. The outcomes vary based on whether each quarterback reaches certain thresholds of scoring passes.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow in the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026. For each quarterback, if the player records the specified number of passing touchdowns or more, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies to scenarios where a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps—in such cases, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap, regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty, the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These rules ensure that markets reflect actual in-game performance while accounting for pre-game uncertainties regarding player participation.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds in this market can shift rapidly, potentially providing a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome than traditional sportsbooks. It's common to see convergence as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by both teams in the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payouts on Kalshi following the game's completion.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team, such as injuries or changes in playing status, would likely cause substantial movement. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for passing, could also shift the odds. Unexpected changes in defensive strategies or key player matchups could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, late-breaking news about player availability or performance expectations could drive significant activity in this market.