TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:25 PM EST
Kalshi
In the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh matchup, both teams' defensive units will aim to assert dominance by scoring the first touchdown of the game. This contest underscores the unpredictable nature of football, where defensive strategies can lead to unexpected scoring opportunities and shift the game's early dynamics.
This event decides which team's defense scores the first touchdown in the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh game scheduled for Sep 27, 2026. The markets evaluated are PIT Steelers D/ST, CIN Bengals D/ST, and No Touchdown. The market resolves to Yes for the defense that scores the first touchdown. If no defensive touchdowns are scored, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules handle cases where a defense is active but does not take a snap, settling at the pre-game fair market price. Once a defense takes a snap, the outcome is determined by whether they score a touchdown, with penalties not affecting the resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds in this market tend to adjust more rapidly than those offered by traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the trading period, as the market digests new data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different players to score the first touchdown, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that player achieving this outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined by supply and demand; if many traders believe a player is likely to score first, the price of their contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, following the conclusion of the Cincinnati versus Pittsburgh game. The outcome will be determined by identifying the player who officially scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting of the game results. The official game statistics will serve as the basis for confirming the winning contract in this market. Any scoring plays subject to review will be settled based on the final, official ruling from the league.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players for either team, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the probabilities, potentially favoring running backs over quarterbacks. Finally, late-breaking news about team strategies or play-calling tendencies could lead to traders adjusting their positions, causing movement in this market until the game begins.