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OPEN INTEREST:
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399,592
Markets across
30,097
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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Closed: Jul 1, 9:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team leads after the first 3 innings of the Cincinnati vs Milwaukee baseball game scheduled for July 1, 2026. Bettors can wager on Cincinnati winning, Milwaukee winning, or the teams being tied at the end of the third inning.
Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the first 3 innings of the Cincinnati vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT. If Cincinnati has more runs than Milwaukee after 3 innings, the Cincinnati strike resolves to Yes. If Milwaukee has more runs than Cincinnati after 3 innings, the Milwaukee strike resolves to Yes. If both teams have equal runs after 3 innings, the Tie strike resolves to Yes and all team strikes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money commitments from traders rather than expert opinion alone. In this market, traders are directly pricing their beliefs about early-inning outcomes, which can incorporate live information, betting patterns, and crowd sentiment that analysts may not weight equally. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from baseball analysts can reveal where the market is more bullish or bearish, potentially signaling overlooked value or consensus blind spots.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the aggregate belief of all active traders, with bids and asks updating in real time as new information emerges and positions shift. This transparent, auction-style pricing means you can see exactly what other traders are willing to pay or accept, and you can execute trades at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, once the Cincinnati vs Milwaukee game's first three innings are complete and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual events that unfold during those innings, with no ambiguity about which team scored more runs or achieved the specified condition. Resolution happens automatically once the game data is confirmed, and all positions are settled according to the final verified result.
Several factors can shift odds before the game begins: lineup announcements, injury reports, weather conditions, and recent team performance trends. Once play starts, early runs, pitcher effectiveness, and defensive plays during the first three innings will drive real-time price swings as traders react to live action. Unexpected developments like a key player being pulled or a surprising pitching change can also trigger sharp moves, so monitoring both pre-game news and in-game developments is essential for active traders.