TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Cincinnati will win by more than 13.5 points against Houston in their upcoming football game. Currently, the probability of Cincinnati achieving this margin of victory on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Cincinnati vs Houston Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, as determined by the final score reported following the game. Keep a close watch on the game itself on September 20, 2026, as the final score will determine whether Cincinnati exceeds the 13.5-point spread.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the Cincinnati vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market specifies a particular point margin threshold; if the winning team exceeds this margin, the market settles to 'Yes.' For instance, markets for Houston winning by more than a specified number of points will resolve positively if Houston's victory margin surpasses that number. Conversely, markets for Cincinnati winning by more than a specified number of points resolve positively if Cincinnati's victory margin exceeds the stated threshold. The outcomes encompass a range of margins from narrow victories (e.g., over 1.5 points) to decisive wins (e.g., over 20.5 points), providing multiple opportunities to assess the potential scale of either team's success. All markets are independent, and the resolution depends solely on the actual game result and the corresponding point differential.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting patterns, this market continuously updates based on every trade made, potentially offering a more dynamic and accurate forecast of the game's outcome. It’s common to see differences in the perceived probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Cincinnati versus Houston game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final spread and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread established by official game statistics will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Cincinnati versus Houston game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome of the game and their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key players on either the Cincinnati or Houston teams would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in coaching strategies or team performance during practice could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, major weather forecasts predicting adverse conditions during the game could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators could also contribute to volatility in this market, as traders react to new information and opinions.