TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 4:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on whether they achieve certain passing yard thresholds. It allows participants to speculate on players' potential output during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing yards accumulated by the specified quarterback during the Cincinnati vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. If the named player is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all thresholds for each quarterback, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance against the specified yardage targets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade contracts, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the outcome as new information becomes available. It’s common to see differences emerge, particularly as the event approaches and more data points – like injury reports or weather forecasts – come into play. However, both aim to forecast the same event, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders regarding the likelihood of that specific yardage range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth also indicates the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, with higher volume at certain price points suggesting stronger conviction.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, official passing yardage total for the Cincinnati versus Houston game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual passing yardage range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect ranges will not. The market's resolution is independent of any pre-game predictions or analyses.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health – injuries to key players on either team – would likely cause substantial shifts in the price of contracts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor either a passing or running game, could also impact trading activity. Late-breaking news about defensive strategies or changes in coaching personnel could also contribute to movement. Finally, public sentiment and large-volume trades from informed participants can all play a role in shaping the market’s direction before Sep 20, 2026.