TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 3:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Cincinnati or Houston specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of the Cincinnati vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that determines resolution: if Houston wins the third quarter by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5), the corresponding 'Houston wins 3Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Cincinnati wins the third quarter by more than a specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points), the relevant 'Cincinnati wins 3Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Markets with higher thresholds represent more decisive third-quarter performances. No points scored in other quarters influence these outcomes. The markets are independent, meaning each resolves based solely on its own threshold being met, without regard to other markets' results.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individuals actively trading on Kalshi. It’s common to see initial discrepancies, but as the event approaches, the prices in this market often converge with those offered by sportsbooks, though differences can persist due to varying incentives and information access.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome – in this case, Cincinnati winning the 3rd quarter by over the spread. As more people buy contracts predicting that outcome, the price goes up, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market is entirely driven by supply and demand, and the price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the 3rd quarter spread in the Cincinnati vs. Houston game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted whether Cincinnati wins the 3rd quarter by more than the specified spread. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key defensive players, could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions that might favor a particular style of play, could also impact trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis that alters public perception of the teams’ relative strengths could lead to movement in this market on Kalshi.