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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - First 5 Innings Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the first 5 innings: Reds or Pirates?

Volume:
$142,533

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 6:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,042
N/A
N/A
$7,435
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cincinnati wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$108,226
N/A
N/A
$89,897
Settled
No
polymarket

Cincinnati Reds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,261
N/A
N/A
$13,915
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group resolves based on which team is winning (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning of the Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB game scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 4:05 PM ET. The market covers three mutually exclusive outcomes: Reds lead, Pirates lead, or tied score after exactly 5 complete innings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines three explicit binary markets with clear outcomes (Reds, Pirates, Draw). Kalshi's description lists three Yes-resolution conditions but does not clarify whether these are three separate markets or a single categorical market, and does not specify the No/alternative resolution condition.Hero tip: For trading purposes, assume Polymarket's structure is authoritative: three separate binary markets. On Kalshi, request clarification on market structure before settlement. If Kalshi is a single categorical market, confirm that all three outcomes (Reds, Pirates, Tie) are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, and that postponement/cancellation rules match Polymarket's 50-50 split or game-resumption logic.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets. Reds market resolves Yes if Reds lead after 5 innings, No if Pirates lead or tied. Pirates market resolves Yes if Pirates lead, No if Reds lead or tied. Tie market resolves Yes if tied, No if either team leads. Postponed games remain open until 5th inning completed; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds is winning... "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning... "Draw" if the game is tied.'
  • Kalshi: Describes three conditions, each resolving to Yes, but market structure is ambiguous. Does not explicitly state whether these are three separate binary markets or a single categorical market. Does not specify the No/alternative resolution condition or postponement/cancellation handling. Key quote: 'If Cincinnati wins the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes. If Pittsburgh wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Cincinnati and Pittsburgh tie... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for June 27 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the first five innings of the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT. If Cincinnati has more runs than Pittsburgh after five innings, the Cincinnati outcome resolves to Yes. If Pittsburgh has more runs than Cincinnati, the Pittsburgh outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams have scored the same number of runs, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game has finished, within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in that traders themselves set odds through supply and demand rather than oddsmakers. Sportsbooks typically build in a margin and adjust lines to balance liability; prediction markets reflect pure trader conviction. This market's odds may diverge from sportsbook spreads or moneylines because prediction traders focus specifically on the five-inning outcome, while sportsbooks price the full nine innings. Direct comparison requires converting between probability and decimal or American formats.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate under distinct market rules, position limits, and settlement procedures. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but if capital is slow to move between platforms or if one venue has deeper liquidity in this particular event, price divergence can persist. Additionally, different user bases may interpret early-game momentum or weather conditions differently, leading to genuine disagreement on five-inning outcomes.

Starting lineups and bullpen availability are primary drivers, as early-game pitching matchups heavily influence five-inning scoring. Weather conditions—wind direction, temperature, and precipitation—can shift run-scoring expectations. Injury reports or late roster moves announced before game time may trigger sharp trader repositioning. Live game action, including early runs, errors, or momentum shifts, will cause rapid repricing once play begins. Sportsbook line movement and sharp money flowing into this market can also signal new information, prompting traders to adjust their positions on this market accordingly.