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$134b

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$107,351,958

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OPEN INTEREST:

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400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates?

Volume:
$2,192,126

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

 - Polymarket

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 4:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$788,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$266,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$144,120
N/A
N/A
$73,728
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 13.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$194,909
N/A
N/A
$65,232
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 13.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$858
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 12.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$176,653
N/A
N/A
$100,532
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 12.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 8.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$151,432
N/A
N/A
$83,779
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$137,506
N/A
N/A
$47,746
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 11.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 10.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$93,850
N/A
N/A
$64,783
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$82,679
N/A
N/A
$48,693
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,937
N/A
N/A
$23,778
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 14.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,507
N/A
N/A
$11,935
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 14.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,482
N/A
N/A
$16,932
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,519
N/A
N/A
$10,359
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,915
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,981
N/A
N/A
$6,513
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,803
N/A
N/A
$1,424
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 40

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a Major League Baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT, including moneyline winner, run totals, spreads, and first-inning scoring outcomes. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability for the Reds to cover a -2.5 spread stands at 100.0%, as aggregated from MLB.com official records. Watch for the game's final score on June 27 to determine settlement across all outcome types.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use mathematically equivalent but linguistically different threshold conventions for run totals. Kalshi states thresholds as "more X.5" (exclusive) while Polymarket states them as "X or more" (inclusive of the next integer). This creates identical resolution logic but introduces semantic risk if final scores are misinterpreted.Hero tip: Both platforms resolve identically in practice (3+ runs on a 2.5 line, 9+ runs on an 8.5 line), but the language difference creates audit risk. Always cross-reference the final official MLB box score runs total against both platforms' stated thresholds before disputing a settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 11 markets on combined run totals using exclusive threshold language. All resolve Yes if combined runs exceed the stated X.5 value. Example: 'more 2.5 runs' = 3+ runs triggers Yes. Thresholds offered: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5, 12.5.
  • Polymarket: Multiple market types: moneyline (winner), first-inning run (Yes/No), full-game Over/Under (8.5 line = 9+ runs), first-5-inning Over/Under (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5 lines), spreads (Reds -1.5/-2.5, Pirates -1.5/-2.5), and extra innings (Yes/No). Over/Under logic: stated line X.5 resolves Over at X+1 runs.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for June 27 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The market evaluates the combined runs scored by both teams throughout the complete game. Resolution occurs to Yes if the combined total exceeds 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5, or 12.5 runs respectively across the designated outcomes. Resolution is based on the final official score of the complete game as originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating sharp-money signals but prioritizing profit margins. Prediction markets like those tracked here rely on trader consensus—real money on the line creates direct price discovery. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, unfiltered by a bookmaker's margin. Comparing this market's prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities or consensus shifts the books haven't yet adjusted.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different odds on the same event for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which influences how prices settle. Polymarket may have deeper liquidity in this matchup, allowing prices to move more efficiently, while Kalshi might see concentrated positions from a smaller group of active traders. Geographic restrictions, platform-specific incentives, and timing lags in order flow also create temporary divergences. Savvy traders monitor both venues to spot arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which platform's crowd is more confident.