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Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley
polymarket
kalshi

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley

Volume:
$946,195

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley

 - Polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 13, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 9:27 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$234,682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arthur Fils

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$148,632
N/A
N/A
$88,438
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 Winner

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Frances Tiafoe

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$95,180
N/A
N/A
$63,973
Settled
No
kalshi

Taylor Fritz

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80,522
N/A
N/A
$62,742
Settled
No
kalshi

Flavio Cobolli

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,514
N/A
N/A
$49,602
Settled
No
kalshi

Brandon Nakashima

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,076
N/A
N/A
$37,887
Settled
No
kalshi

Felix Auger-Aliassime

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,150
N/A
N/A
$32,469
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexander Zverev

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,554
N/A
N/A
$28,805
Settled
No
kalshi

Rafael Jodar

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,305
N/A
N/A
$26,402
Settled
No
kalshi

Lorenzo Musetti

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,644
N/A
N/A
$26,574
Settled
No
kalshi

Tommy Paul

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,163
N/A
N/A
$20,021
Settled
No
kalshi

Thiago Agustin Tirante

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,097
N/A
N/A
$20,883
Settled
No
kalshi

Alex de Minaur

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,880
N/A
N/A
$9,333
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniil Medvedev

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,262
N/A
N/A
$8,221
Settled
No
kalshi

Joao Fonseca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,149
N/A
N/A
$6,934
Settled
No
kalshi

Jakub Mensik

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,611
N/A
N/A
$6,207
Settled
No
kalshi

Jaime Faria

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,157
N/A
N/A
$5,152
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 70

Intro

This market tracks whether Arthur Fils will win the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament. The aggregated consensus probability shows Arthur Fils with a leading probability of 94.0%, while Frances Tiafoe follows at 5.0%. Data is aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution determined by whether Arthur Fils claims the tournament title. Keep an eye on the tournament's conclusion on September 8, 2026, as this will be the key catalyst for market resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets have fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket resolves based on the specific Mejía vs Fearnley qualification match outcome, while Kalshi resolves based on whether any of the listed players win the entire 2026 ATP Cincinnati tournament.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between these markets. Polymarket resolves based on the match result between Mejia and Fearnley, while Kalshi resolves based on tournament-level outcomes. Treat them as entirely separate bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Nicolas Mejia' if he advances, 'Jacob Fearnley' if he advances, '50-50' for cancellations or walkovers, and 'No' if the match is not completed. Key Quote: This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Mejia and Jacob Fearnley in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any of the 25 listed players (including Jacob Fearnley but not Nicolas Mejia) win the 2026 ATP Cincinnati tournament, regardless of the qualification match outcome. Key Quote: If Jacob Fearnley wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Mejia and Jacob Fearnley in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Mejia' if Nicolas Mejia advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Nicolas Mejia. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Luca Van Assche wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Quentin Halys wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jaime Faria wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marcos Giron wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alexander Shevchenko wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Trungelliti wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Coleman Wong wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sho Shimabukuro wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hugo Gaston wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Martin Damm Jr wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aleksandar Vukic wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Benjamin Bonzi wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Francisco Comesana wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Toby Samuel wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jacob Fearnley wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dalibor Svrcina wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Zheng wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Otto Virtanen wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yibing Wu wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yunchaokete Bu wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Titouan Droguet wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyrian Jacquet wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dane Sweeny wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. If Henrique Rocha wins the 2026 ATP Cincinnati professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.