TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming football game between two teams. Each outcome depends on the margin of victory for either team during that specific quarter, with varying thresholds for success.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the fourth quarter of the designated game, excluding any overtime periods. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins that quarter by exceeding the stated point differential. Thresholds range from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, offering varied levels of difficulty for each prediction. The official game result, any cancellations, or points from other quarters do not affect these resolutions. All outcomes are independent of broader game results, focusing exclusively on fourth-quarter performance.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of prediction markets as new information becomes available. It's common to see this market adjust more rapidly to news and developments than traditional odds.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Bengals versus Steelers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, determining which spread contracts will pay out. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout for their contracts shortly after the game concludes. The market’s resolution is independent of any subjective interpretation and relies solely on the official game statistics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bengals or the Steelers would likely cause movement, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game's style. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or breaking news, could also influence trading activity. Late-breaking news regarding coaching decisions or team strategies could also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths or the likely game flow has the potential to move this market.