TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the first quarter of a football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that either team must achieve to satisfy the condition.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either the Cincinnati Bengals or Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter of their scheduled game on September 27, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. For the Bengals, thresholds range from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points. For the Steelers, thresholds also range from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and the markets are independent of each other, meaning each resolves based on its own criteria regardless of other market outcomes. The governing league's official scoring and game results determine resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes diverge from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven purely by participant beliefs about the actual outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the Bengals will perform better than expected in the first quarter, the price will move accordingly, potentially creating a difference between this market and sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and analysis that isn’t immediately reflected in sportsbook offerings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Bengals-Steelers 1st quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can take either the 'buy' side, predicting the spread will be lower, or the 'sell' side, predicting it will be higher. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official first quarter spread from the NFL game between the Bengals and the Steelers will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the final, official result as reported by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the game’s conclusion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game time. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bengals or the Steelers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s offensive style, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in expert analysis or betting trends, can influence traders on Kalshi. Unexpected coaching decisions or late-breaking news about team strategies could also contribute to price fluctuations.