TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 4:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two baseball teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. Bettors can speculate on whether a team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the game.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each evaluating different run-margin thresholds for both participating teams. If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win by more than 1.5 runs (but not exceeding 2.5 runs), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Chunichi Dragons win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. Finally, if the Chunichi Dragons win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Each market operates independently, and only the specific condition corresponding to each market needs to be met for that market to resolve to Yes. All markets are subject to the same underlying game, scheduled for September 6, 2026, at 4:00 AM EDT, and all disclaimers regarding Kalshi’s lack of affiliation with the Governing League apply uniformly across all markets.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing these odds can provide a broader understanding of the potential outcomes and probabilities associated with the Chunichi Dragons and Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders can earn money based on the difference between their buy and sell prices. This dynamic process creates a constantly adjusting price that reflects the latest information and collective intelligence regarding the Chunichi Dragons and Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Chunichi Dragons versus Tokyo Yakult Swallows game, as determined by official league results. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their positions, and any winning contracts will be settled accordingly. The market’s resolution provides a clear and objective assessment of the accuracy of predictions made before the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 6, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather forecasts could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games, or shifts in expert analysis, could also lead to price movements. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in expectations regarding the Chunichi Dragons and Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Monitoring these signals can help understand the dynamics driving the market’s price.