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406,065

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2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Chunichi Dragons vs. Hiroshima Carp
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Chunichi Dragons vs. Hiroshima Carp?

Volume:
$55,174

Chunichi Dragons

 - Kalshi

Chunichi Dragons - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 4:10 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chunichi Dragons

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,101
N/A
N/A
$20,067
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chunichi Dragons vs. Hiroshima Carp

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,772
N/A
N/A
$20,261
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) matchup between the Chunichi Dragons and Hiroshima Carp scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT. Markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the outcome of this game, with different resolution mechanics for edge cases like postponements, cancellations, and ties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (Carp win and Dragons win) are mapped to the same resolution value (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable as a binary. Polymarket uses standard win-based binary logic with clear tie/cancellation handling.Hero tip: Kalshi's market structure is broken and unresolvable in its current form. Request clarification from Kalshi before trading. Polymarket's market is logically sound and can be traded with confidence once the game occurs.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Standard binary outcome: Chunichi Dragons win resolves to Chunichi Dragons, Hiroshima Carp win resolves to Hiroshima Carp. Postponement keeps market open. Cancellation or tie resolves 50-50. Source: https://npb.jp/
  • Kalshi: Logical contradiction: market states 'If Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Chunichi Dragons wins...resolves to Yes'. Both mutually exclusive outcomes cannot both resolve to Yes in a binary market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 11 at 1:00AM ET: If the Chunichi Dragons win, the market will resolve to "Chunichi Dragons". If the Hiroshima Carp win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Carp". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the final result of the game as originally scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two days of the original date. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, the market resolves to a fair price per standard procedures. Tied games resolve to 50/50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous order books or automated market makers. This market's odds reflect what thousands of traders collectively believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing this market's probability to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities, though liquidity and spreads differ between venues.

On Polymarket, traders use an automated market maker to set prices continuously, while Kalshi employs an order-book model with discrete price levels. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences also stem from distinct user bases, fee structures, and market depth. Polymarket typically attracts higher volume on major sports events, potentially tightening spreads, whereas Kalshi's order-book design can create pockets of mispricing. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but transaction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent full convergence between platforms.

Key injury announcements, roster changes, or lineup decisions from either team can shift odds significantly. Recent performance trends, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage perceptions also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions and venue factors may emerge as relevant closer to game day. Media coverage, expert predictions, and betting-market activity on external sportsbooks can cascade into this market as traders react to new information. Late-breaking news about player availability or team strategy typically triggers the most dramatic repricing.