TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 8:49 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the performance of two baseball teams in an upcoming game, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how observers expect one team to dominate the other, with different thresholds for winning by a comfortable lead. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the match.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each defining a specific winning margin scenario for either the Chunichi Dragons or the Hanshin Tigers in their game scheduled for September 13, 2026. The first market resolves to Yes if the Hanshin Tigers win by more than 2.5 runs, the second if they win by more than 1.5 runs, the third if the Chunichi Dragons win by more than 1.5 runs, and the fourth if they win by more than 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying game and date, but each has a unique threshold for resolution. If none of these conditions are met—for example, if the game ends in a tie, is cancelled, or the winning team’s margin of victory does not exceed the specified run thresholds—then all markets resolve to No. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small number of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant amount of volume is traded. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither guarantees accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders are constantly posting bids and asks, establishing the current price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that the Hanshin Tigers will win by over 2.5 runs, as perceived by the crowd. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived probability, while lower prices suggest the opposite. Traders buy 'yes' contracts if they believe the outcome will occur and 'no' contracts if they believe it won't, driving the price based on their collective predictions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score of the Chunichi Dragons versus the Hanshin Tigers game and whether the Hanshin Tigers won by over 2.5 runs. The platform will verify the result against official game statistics to determine the winning contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to Sep 13, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chunichi Dragons or the Hanshin Tigers could significantly shift the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game, could also play a role. Additionally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the teams' performance could drive trading volume and alter the price of contracts in this market.