TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 21K
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Aug 16, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the first-week pure album sales performance of Chuck Timely & The Hourglass by ROLE MODEL during the August 7-13, 2026 tracking week in the United States. Pure album sales measure physical and digital album purchases only, excluding streaming-equivalent conversions. Resolution occurs on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week using data from Luminate Data, LLC.
Kalshi
This event establishes multiple resolution thresholds based on pure album sales volume for Chuck Timely & The Hourglass during the August 07-13, 2026 tracking week in the U.S. market. Each threshold tier—ranging from above 3,000 to above 30,000 units—represents a distinct outcome. The event resolves based on verified pure album sales data provided by Luminate Data, LLC, a neutral market metrics provider. Resolution occurs on the Sunday immediately following the conclusion of the tracking week. Pure album sales encompass direct album purchases through physical and digital channels, excluding any streaming-based equivalent unit conversions. Participants should note that Luminate Data, LLC does not endorse, verify, or participate in prediction market outcomes; it serves solely as the data source for determining which threshold, if any, has been exceeded.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because traders are directly incentivized to forecast accurately—incorrect bets result in real losses. While music industry analysts may rely on historical comps, radio play, and pre-order data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants betting their own capital. Comparing the current odds on this market to published analyst estimates can reveal where the prediction community is more bullish or bearish than the conventional wisdom, offering a complementary signal for assessing first-week sales potential.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects a fractional claim on the final outcome, and the bid-ask spread indicates the current consensus and uncertainty around first-week pure album sales. As new information surfaces—chart predictions, pre-order momentum, or industry commentary—traders adjust their positions, and the market price updates in real time to reflect the latest collective forecast.
This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, once first-week pure album sales data becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual number of pure sales Chuck Timely & The Hourglass achieves in its opening week, confirmed through official industry reporting. Traders holding positions aligned with the final verified figure will be settled at the full payout, while those on the wrong side of the outcome will receive nothing.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Major radio or streaming playlist placements, surprise guest appearances, or viral social media moments can boost momentum and trader expectations. Conversely, negative press, chart performance of competing releases, or lower-than-expected pre-order numbers could dampen sentiment. Industry reports on early sales trends, chart debuts, and any official label guidance on sales projections will likely trigger sharp repricing. Tracking these signals in real time can help you anticipate market moves and refine your position.
