TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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China vs. Lebanon
polymarket
predict
kalshi

China vs. Lebanon

Volume:
$779,008

China

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 9:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

China

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$363,737
N/A
N/A
$142,750
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China (-10.5)

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China vs. Lebanon

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$186,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

China vs. Lebanon

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$41,782
$26,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 170.5

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lebanon

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200,817
N/A
N/A
$85,526
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game between China and Lebanon. The aggregated consensus probability for China to win stands at 100.0%. Data is drawn from Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, with resolution based on the official FIBA basketball website. Watch for the game result on August 31 at 6:00AM ET to determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental market structure mismatch between Kalshi's Yes/No format and Polymarket/Predict's team-name resolution formatHero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket/Predict for this match. Kalshi resolves to Yes regardless of which team wins, while Polymarket and Predict require specific team names for resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "China" if China wins, "Lebanon" if Lebanon wins, remains open if postponed, and splits 50-50 if canceled with no makeup game. Quote: "If the China win, the market will resolve to 'China'. If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to 'Lebanon'"
  • Predict: Same resolution logic as Polymarket with identical team-name resolution requirements. Quote: "If the China win, the market will resolve to 'China'. If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to 'Lebanon'"
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either team wins, with no distinction between winners. Quote: "If China wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Lebanon wins... then the market resolves to Yes"
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for August 31 at 6:00AM ET: If the China win, the market will resolve to "China". If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to "Lebanon". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified team wins the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for August 31, 2026. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Predict

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for August 31 at 6:00AM ET: If the China win, the market will resolve to "China". If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to "Lebanon". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Frequently asked questions

Injuries to key players, weather disruptions, or shifts in team form could sway odds for this market as the match approaches. Strong recent performances, coaching strategies, or even geopolitical factors influencing venue conditions may cause rapid re-pricing on Polymarket and Predict, especially as the start date nears and betting volume spikes.