China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

This market tracks whether China's gross domestic product will exceed that of the United States by the end of the decade. On Kalshi, the probability of China overtaking US GDP by 2030 stands at 19.0%. Resolution will be determined by comparing official GDP figures as of 2030-01-01 to establish whether China has surpassed the United States in total economic output. Watch for major economic data releases and policy announcements from both nations through 2029, as shifts in growth rates, currency valuations, and structural reforms will be critical signals ahead of the 2030 resolution date.