TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Arthur Gea in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Arthur Gea in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates the views of informed traders. If sportsbook odds significantly differ from those found here, it could indicate a discrepancy in perceived probabilities or differing levels of information available to each group. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees a specific outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the China Open Qualification match between Tomas Machac and Arthur Gea. The platform will then verify the result against reliable sources to determine which outcome—a Machac win or a Gea win—is the correct one. The outcome will be determined by the official tournament results, and any disputes will be handled according to the platform’s guidelines.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift probabilities. For example, if reports emerge of an injury to Arthur Gea, the market would likely move in favor of Tomas Machac. Unexpected results in other matches within the China Open could also impact perceptions of player momentum and influence trading behavior. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived likelihood of either player winning has the potential to move this market.