TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 9:30 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Miomir Kecmanovic will win by at least two games against Adrian Mannarino in their China Open Qualification match. Currently, Polymarket gives a 10.0% probability to Game Spread: Miomir Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+1.5). Resolution will be based on the official scores reported at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match itself, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET, as the outcome will depend on Kecmanovic’s performance in this qualifying round.
This market refers to the tennis match between Miomir Kecmanovic and Adrian Mannarino in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miomir Kecmanovic' if Miomir Kecmanovic advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Miomir Kecmanovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, driven by traders on Polymarket, allows individuals to express their beliefs about the match outcome, potentially leading to odds that more accurately represent the true probability of either player winning. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the available data.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the China Open Qualification match between Miomir Kecmanovic and Adrian Mannarino. The platform will verify the winner based on publicly available sources such as official tournament websites and sports news outlets. The outcome will be determined by which player advances to the next stage of the tournament, as officially declared by the tournament organizers.
Several factors could influence the trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match previews could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches featuring these players leading up to the event could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants or shifts in public opinion could quickly move the market. Monitoring tennis news and analyzing player form will be key to understanding potential catalysts for price movement in this market.