TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:12 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Landaluce and Marco Trungelliti in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Marco Trungelliti. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Martin Landaluce. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Landaluce and Marco Trungelliti in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Marco Trungelliti. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Martin Landaluce. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on a variety of factors, including public betting patterns and their own internal models. This market, however, reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the unique dynamics of each venue. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook odds, especially as new information becomes available or as the event draws nearer.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Landaluce vs Trungelliti match. As more shares are bought for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. The market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand from traders, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the match’s likely result.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Landaluce vs Trungelliti match as reported by the official tournament organizers. The market will determine which player advanced to the next stage of the China Open qualification rounds. The outcome will be determined by the official result, and the market will settle accordingly, distributing payouts to those who correctly predicted the winner.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly impact the perceived likelihood of each player winning. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or even weather forecasts could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in sentiment and cause the market to move. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to the match’s completion.