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404,028

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2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$94,540

New York Y wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 18, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 8:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$66,238
N/A
N/A
$47,343
Settled
Yes
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,289
N/A
N/A
$19,263
Settled
No
polymarket

Chicago White Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,935
N/A
N/A
$5,613
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees, originally scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) after exactly 5 complete innings of play.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market logic is internally contradictory—it specifies that all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Yankees win, White Sox win, tie) resolve to Yes, making the market logically unresolvable. Additionally, the two platforms list different scheduled dates (June 16 vs June 17, 2026).Hero tip: Kalshi's market is unresolvable as written and should not be traded. Polymarket's three-way structure (Yankees, White Sox, Draw) is the only coherent framework. Before any settlement, confirm the actual game date and time with MLB.com's official schedule.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure declares Yes resolution for all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Yankees win first 5, White Sox win first 5, or tie in first 5). This is a logical contradiction that makes settlement impossible. Quote: 'If New York Y wins... resolves to Yes. If Chicago WS wins... resolves to Yes. If... tie... resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Offers three separate binary outcomes: resolves to Yankees if Yankees leading after inning 5, White Sox if White Sox leading after inning 5, or Draw if tied. Scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 7:05 PM ET. Includes contingency rules for postponement (remains open until 5th inning completed) and cancellation (50-50 split). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Chicago White Sox if... White Sox is winning... New York Yankees if... Yankees is winning... Draw if the game is tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees, scheduled for June 17 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the score at the end of the fifth inning in the Chicago WS vs New York Y professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT. Chicago WS resolves to Yes if that team has more runs than New York Y after five innings. New York Y resolves to Yes if that team has more runs than Chicago WS after five innings. Tie resolves to Yes if both teams have equal runs after five innings; if a tie occurs, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game has finished within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader positions and order flow, reflecting crowd belief in real time. Traditional sportsbooks set fixed lines based on statistical models and risk management, then adjust for liability. Prediction market odds often react faster to breaking news and sentiment shifts, while sportsbooks may hold lines longer to balance action. For this matchup, comparing this market's consensus to major sportsbook spreads reveals whether the crowd sees early-inning advantage differently than professional oddsmakers. Both reflect probability, but through distinct mechanisms.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct contract structures and user demographics. Polymarket may frame the outcome as a binary winner question, while Kalshi includes tied scenarios, creating different probability distributions. Liquidity depth, trading hours, and fee structures also influence price discovery. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms are often limited by withdrawal friction and settlement timing. Observing these spreads helps traders identify where consensus is strongest and where edge may exist across venues.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher health, and weather conditions at game time are primary catalysts. Injury reports or late roster changes can shift early-inning advantage significantly. Pre-game betting action and sportsbook line movement often precede prediction market repricing. Live game momentum—early runs, defensive plays, or pitcher performance in the first inning—will drive sharp trading once play begins. Monitor team news, weather forecasts, and opening pitch time closely, as these factors compress into this market's final hours before settlement.