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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: White Sox or Guardians?

Volume:
$52,268

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 10:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,001
N/A
N/A
$12,024
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,294
N/A
N/A
$7,180
Settled
No
kalshi

Cleveland wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,962
N/A
N/A
$13,507
Settled
No
polymarket

Chicago White Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the end of the 5th inning, with three possible outcomes: White Sox leading, Guardians leading, or a tie.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves to Yes for all three mutually exclusive outcomes (White Sox win, Cleveland win, or tie), making it logically unresolvable. Additionally, the game date differs between platforms (July 3 vs July 4, 2026), creating ambiguity about which game is being referenced.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is critically flawed and should not be traded in its current form. Polymarket's structure is correct with three distinct outcomes. Confirm the actual MLB game date with MLB.com official schedule before placing any trades. If Kalshi intends a Yes/No market, it must specify a single condition (e.g., 'White Sox ahead after 5 innings') not all possible outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes if Chicago WS wins first 5 innings, OR Cleveland wins first 5 innings, OR they tie. This is logically impossible—all three mutually exclusive outcomes cannot be Yes. Game date: July 3, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Chicago White Sox winning (Yes/No), Cleveland Guardians winning (Yes/No), or Tied (Yes/No). Exactly one resolves Yes, others No. Game date: July 4, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET. Includes postponement and cancellation rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for July 4 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for the Chicago White Sox if they lead after 5 innings, to Yes for Cleveland if they lead after 5 innings, or to Yes for Tie if both teams have scored equal runs after 5 innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed-line models, so odds shift continuously as traders buy and sell shares. Sportsbooks set and manage lines to balance action and lock in margin, whereas prediction markets reflect live consensus among participants. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because prediction traders often incorporate different information sets, time horizons, and risk appetites. Direct comparison requires checking both simultaneously, as prediction odds tend to be more volatile and reactive to breaking news or injury updates.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rule sets, liquidity pools, and user demographics. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-matching engine may price outcomes differently than Polymarket's AMM-style mechanism. Trader composition varies between platforms—some users specialize in baseball, others in cross-market arbitrage—leading to temporary mispricings. Liquidity depth and withdrawal policies also influence how quickly prices converge. These differences create natural arbitrage opportunities, though transaction costs and platform fees often prevent full alignment.

Injury announcements to key batters or pitchers can shift odds significantly, as lineup changes alter scoring potential in the early innings. Weather updates—wind direction, temperature, humidity—affect ball carry and run production. Starting pitcher confirmation and recent performance trends influence early-inning volatility expectations. Late-breaking lineup changes or bullpen availability news often trigger sharp moves in the final hours before first pitch. Scouting reports on opposing pitchers' form and team momentum from recent games also drive trader positioning in this market.