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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: White Sox or Guardians?

Volume:
$181,759

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 8:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100,822
N/A
N/A
$72,079
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chicago White Sox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cleveland wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,636
N/A
N/A
$41,601
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,808
N/A
N/A
$15,776
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) after the completion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (White Sox win, tie, Guardians win) are mapped to Yes, leaving no valid No resolution path. This is a data integrity failure that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The Yes/No binary cannot accommodate three distinct outcomes. Polymarket's three-way market (White Sox / Guardians / Draw) is the only valid structure for this event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure with all three game outcomes (White Sox win, tie, Guardians win) mapped to Yes. No logical path to No resolution. Quote: 'If Chicago WS wins...Yes. If tie...Yes. If Cleveland wins...Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-way categorical market with mutually exclusive outcomes: Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, or Draw. Each outcome is distinct and resolvable. Quote: 'Resolve to Chicago White Sox if White Sox winning at end of 5th. Resolve to Cleveland Guardians if Guardians winning. Resolve to Draw if tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for July 2 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the first five innings of the Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If Chicago White Sox leads after five innings, the Chicago White Sox market resolves to Yes. If Cleveland leads after five innings, the Cleveland market resolves to Yes. If the teams are tied after five innings, the Tie market resolves to Yes and all team-specific markets resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed lines set by oddsmakers. This means odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting real-time belief about the outcome. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed spreads and totals designed to balance action and lock in profit margins. Prediction market prices often converge toward true probability over time, while sportsbook lines may lag or diverge to manage liability. For this market, comparing the implied probabilities here to your sportsbook's first-five-innings line can reveal value opportunities.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence pricing. Polymarket's order-book model may reflect faster-moving algorithmic traders, while Kalshi's user base might skew toward retail participants with longer holding horizons. Geographic restrictions, platform-specific incentives, and differences in how each handles early-inning outcomes can also create temporary spreads. These gaps typically narrow closer to game time as arbitrageurs exploit mispricings, but they offer opportunities for informed traders throughout the betting window.