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Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Chicago White Sox or Baltimore Orioles?

Volume:
$23,875

Chicago WS -2.5 first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Chicago WS -2.5 first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chicago WS -2.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,424
N/A
N/A
$4,570
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chicago WS -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,524
N/A
N/A
$4,970
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chicago White Sox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Baltimore -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,330
N/A
N/A
$3,031
Settled
No
kalshi

Baltimore -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,595
N/A
N/A
$2,428
Settled
No
polymarket

Baltimore Orioles

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 6:35 PM EDT. Markets track which team is winning (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with Kalshi also including run-margin thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-margin thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 runs) to determine YES resolution, while Polymarket resolves based on simple win/loss/tie status with no margin requirement. A 1-run or 2-run victory will resolve differently across platforms.Hero tip: If you hold positions on both platforms, be aware that a close victory (1-2 runs) will resolve YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi. Monitor the final 5-inning score carefully and consider the platform-specific threshold when managing risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 runs OR by more than 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings. Implicitly resolves NO if the margin is 1.5 runs or less (including ties and 1-run/2-run wins). Key Quote: 'If Baltimore wins by more than 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning team name (Chicago White Sox or Baltimore Orioles) if either team is ahead after 5 innings, or to 'Draw' if tied. No run-margin threshold; any lead counts as a win. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for June 30 at 6:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event measures the margin of victory during the first five innings of the Chicago White Sox versus Baltimore game on June 30, 2026. Baltimore-focused outcomes resolve Yes if Baltimore leads by more than specified run margins after five innings: greater than 2.5 runs or greater than 1.5 runs. Chicago White Sox-focused outcomes resolve Yes if Chicago leads by more than specified run margins after five innings: greater than 1.5 runs or greater than 2.5 runs. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Each outcome is evaluated independently based on the score at the end of the fifth inning.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi continuously buy and sell shares, with prices reflecting live consensus probability. Sportsbooks typically build in a margin and adjust for liability; prediction markets distribute winnings directly to correct predictors. This market's odds may move faster or differently than sportsbook lines because they respond instantly to trader activity and new information, often without the lag of manual line adjustments.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, recent team form, and injury updates to star players. Weather conditions at game time—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—can significantly affect early-inning scoring. Line-up changes and bullpen availability also influence trader sentiment. Breaking news about player health or roster moves in the hours before first pitch often triggers sharp price moves. Additionally, if either team announces a surprise starter or tactical adjustment, this market may see rapid repricing as traders reassess the five-inning advantage.