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2,633

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Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$66,639

Chicago C wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 12:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chicago C wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49,090
N/A
N/A
$41,173
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chicago Cubs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,753
N/A
N/A
$8,646
Settled
No
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,786
N/A
N/A
$6,209
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group captures the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 10:05 PM EDT. Markets track which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with separate binary and categorical resolution structures across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (SF win, tie, Cubs win) are mapped to Yes, making the market non-falsifiable and unresolvable. Polymarket uses correct categorical logic with three distinct outcomes.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's version. The market cannot fail to resolve Yes and has no informational value. Use Polymarket exclusively, which properly distinguishes Cubs win, Giants win, and Draw outcomes at the 5-inning mark.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three possible game outcomes (SF wins, tie, Cubs wins) are mapped to Yes resolution. This creates a logical contradiction where the market always resolves Yes regardless of actual game result. Quote: 'If San Francisco wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Chicago C and San Francisco tie... then the market resolves to Yes. If Chicago C wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Proper categorical structure with three distinct outcomes: Cubs win resolves to Chicago Cubs, Giants win resolves to San Francisco Giants, tie resolves to Draw. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Chicago Cubs if the Chicago Cubs is winning... San Francisco Giants if the San Francisco Giants is winning... Draw if the game is tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for June 13 at 10:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event evaluates the winner of the first 5 innings in the Chicago C vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 10:05 PM EDT. Three outcomes are possible: Chicago C wins the first 5 innings, San Francisco wins the first 5 innings, or the teams tie after 5 innings. If the score at the end of the fifth inning is tied, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team-specific outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days of the original scheduled date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets rely on trader competition to discover prices. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent forecasters believe, often incorporating specialized analysis that sportsbooks may lag on. Comparing these two pricing sources can reveal arbitrage opportunities or validate consensus views on the Cubs-Giants matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variation. Kalshi and Polymarket may also enforce slightly different rules around early-game resolution or use distinct data feeds to verify the five-inning outcome. Arbitrageurs typically exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to geographic restrictions, platform reputation, and the time cost of moving capital between venues. Monitoring both platforms reveals the true range of market opinion on this event.

Injury announcements, lineup changes, and starting pitcher confirmations typically shift odds before game time. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and recent team form also influence early-inning performance expectations. During the game itself, early runs, defensive plays, and pitching changes in the first few innings will drive rapid repricing as new information emerges. Traders monitoring live action and pre-game news flow can capitalize on these moves before the five-inning checkpoint arrives.