TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Cubs or Mets?

Volume:
$68,586

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,890
N/A
N/A
$16,736
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York M wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,960
N/A
N/A
$24,409
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Mets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chicago C wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,736
N/A
N/A
$15,348
Settled
No
polymarket

Chicago Cubs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Markets track which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning. The group includes related markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves to Yes for all three possible outcomes (Cubs win, tie, or Mets win), creating a logical tautology that renders the market unresolvable as a prediction instrument. Polymarket provides mutually exclusive outcomes (Cubs, Mets, or Draw) with standard resolution logic.Hero tip: Polymarket's market is the only functionally resolvable version. Kalshi's market appears to contain a structural error—all outcomes cannot resolve to Yes simultaneously. Prioritize Polymarket for trading and settlement. Flag Kalshi for platform review before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure contains logical contradiction. All three possible outcomes (Cubs win, tie, Mets win) are stated to resolve to Yes. Quote: 'If Chicago C wins... resolves to Yes. If Chicago C and New York M tie... resolves to Yes. If New York M wins... resolves to Yes.' This is a tautology and makes the market non-functional.
  • Polymarket: Market provides three mutually exclusive outcomes: Cubs win resolves to 'Chicago Cubs', Mets win resolves to 'New York Mets', tie resolves to 'Draw'. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Chicago Cubs if the Chicago Cubs is winning... New York Mets if the New York Mets is winning... Draw if the game is tied.' Standard, resolvable structure.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, scheduled for June 25 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the first five innings. If Chicago leads after five innings, the Chicago outcome resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. If New York leads after five innings, the New York outcome resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit margin, while prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive prices from live trader supply and demand. Prediction markets often reflect sharper, more dynamic pricing because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter spreads and faster liquidity in mainstream sports events. For this market, comparing the prediction market consensus to your preferred sportsbook's line can reveal whether one venue undervalues or overvalues either team's chances in the first five innings.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates pricing variation. Polymarket and Kalshi may also frame the outcome slightly differently—for instance, one platform might emphasize a tie scenario while the other focuses on outright winners. Trading volume, order book depth, and the timing of large trades can push prices apart temporarily. Additionally, platform-specific rules around settlement and dispute resolution may cause traders to assign different risk premiums. These gaps typically narrow as the event date approaches and arbitrageurs exploit the spread.

Key catalysts include injury reports or roster changes announced before first pitch, which can shift perceived team strength. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and starting pitcher performance in early innings will drive real-time price movement as the game unfolds. Unexpected early scoring, errors, or momentum swings in the first few innings can rapidly reprrice trader expectations. Additionally, breaking news about player availability or late-game lineup adjustments may trigger sharp moves in the hours before the game starts. Live trading during the first five innings themselves will reflect every pitch, at-bat, and run scored.