TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 25, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event allows bettors to wager on individual team performance in the Cubs-Mets game, with separate markets for how many runs New York and Chicago will each score. Bettors can predict whether each team will exceed various run thresholds from 1.5 to 7.5 runs.
Resolution is determined by each team's individual final run total in the complete game scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. New York's performance is evaluated against thresholds ranging from 1.5 to 7.5 runs, while Chicago's performance is evaluated against the same range. Each primary rule establishes a specific run threshold for the respective team; if that team's final run total exceeds the threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses the official final score of the game.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital. Sportsbook odds tend to move more slowly and incorporate public betting patterns, whereas this market can react faster to breaking news or sharp trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential value, though both ultimately aim to price the same underlying event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal probability that traders assign to it, with shares trading between 0 and 100 cents. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens, and the midpoint price adjusts accordingly. This transparent, real-time pricing lets you see exactly what the market believes about the team total at any moment.
This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the game concludes and the final combined team total is confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new developments unfold. Resolution is automatic once the event is finalized, and all positions settle according to the verified result.
Key catalysts for this market include roster changes, injury announcements, and recent team performance trends. Betting line movements at major sportsbooks often precede shifts here, as sharp bettors and traders react to the same information. Weather conditions, travel schedules, and coaching adjustments can also influence scoring expectations. Media reports on team strategy, player form, or matchup dynamics may trigger repricing as traders update their forecasts. Monitoring sports news and official team communications will help you anticipate moves in this market.