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404,028

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Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Orix Buffaloes
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Orix Buffaloes?

Volume:
$356,424

Orix Buffaloes

 - Kalshi

Orix Buffaloes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 7:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$209,588
N/A
N/A
$131,142
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chiba Lotte Marines

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$146,604
N/A
N/A
$88,585
Settled
No
polymarket

Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Orix Buffaloes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) regular season game between the Chiba Lotte Marines and Orix Buffaloes scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. Markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the outcome of this matchup.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Marines win or Buffaloes win) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating data integrity failure.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi until the market terms are corrected. The Kalshi market as written cannot resolve to No under any normal game outcome. Polymarket is the only viable market for this event with proper binary resolution logic.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome market with clear winner-take-all logic. Resolves to the winning team name, or 50-50 split if game is canceled, tied, or has no makeup game. Postponements keep market open until completion.
  • Kalshi: Yes/No market with critical logical flaw: both winning outcomes (Orix Buffaloes win OR Chiba Lotte Marines win) are mapped to Yes resolution, leaving no valid path to No resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 12 at 4:00AM ET: If the Chiba Lotte Marines win, the market will resolve to "Chiba Lotte Marines". If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

This event covers a Japan NPB game between Orix Buffaloes and Chiba Lotte Marines originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. Each team has a corresponding market that resolves to Yes if that team wins the game. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and close after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, markets resolve to a fair price per official rules. Tied games result in 50/50 resolution across all markets.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover true probability. This market reflects real-money bets from thousands of participants with no house edge, often resulting in sharper, less biased odds than traditional sportsbooks. However, sportsbook lines may move faster on breaking news, whereas prediction markets can lag during low-liquidity periods.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences stem from distinct user bases, fee structures, and market-making approaches. Polymarket and Kalshi attract traders with varying risk appetites and information sets, causing temporary price gaps. Kalshi's regulatory framework and Polymarket's design philosophy also influence how quickly new information gets priced in. Arbitrage traders exploit these spreads, but friction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent full convergence, leaving room for informed traders to capitalize on mispricings.