TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Orix Buffaloes
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Orix Buffaloes?

Volume:
$74,959

Orix Buffaloes

 - Kalshi

Orix Buffaloes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 8:09 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Orix Buffaloes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36,454
N/A
N/A
$26,854
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chiba Lotte Marines

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,224
N/A
N/A
$25,884
Settled
No
polymarket

Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Orix Buffaloes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) game between the Chiba Lotte Marines and Orix Buffaloes scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi both reference the same game outcome, with resolution tied to which team wins the matchup.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Orix Buffaloes win OR Chiba Lotte Marines win) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), making the market unresolvable as a binary prediction instrument.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken - both teams winning cannot both resolve to Yes in a binary market. Polymarket offers the only coherent resolution framework. Contact Kalshi support to clarify if this is a template error before any settlement occurs.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome market: resolves to winning team name (Marines or Buffaloes); 50-50 split if game canceled/tied/no makeup; remains open if postponed. Clear, mutually exclusive resolution paths. Key quote: 'If the Chiba Lotte Marines win, the market will resolve to Chiba Lotte Marines. If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to Orix Buffaloes.'
  • Kalshi: Logical failure: both possible outcomes map to Yes. States 'If Orix Buffaloes wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Chiba Lotte Marines wins...resolves to Yes' - no No resolution path exists. Key quote: 'If Orix Buffaloes wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Chiba Lotte Marines wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00AM ET: If the Chiba Lotte Marines win, the market will resolve to "Chiba Lotte Marines". If the Orix Buffaloes win, the market will resolve to "Orix Buffaloes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

This event covers a Japan NPB game scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT between the Orix Buffaloes and Chiba Lotte Marines. Each team has a corresponding market that resolves to Yes if that team wins the game. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and close after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, markets resolve to a fair price per official rules. In the event of a tie, all markets resolve to 50/50.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market prices for the Marines vs. Buffaloes matchup across multiple platforms, giving you a real-time consensus view of how traders are pricing the outcome. You can monitor aggregate volume of $74,959 and 24-hour activity at $74,926 to gauge market interest and liquidity. The cross-platform tracker shows how odds shift as new information emerges, helping you spot divergences between venues and understand where the smart money is positioning itself ahead of the event.

Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets are driven by trader conviction and real-money risk. This market's odds may trade at a premium or discount to sportsbook lines depending on which venue has better information flow or deeper liquidity at any given moment. Comparing both sources helps you identify value and understand market sentiment.

Even when tracking the same event, prediction platforms can show different prices due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and order flow timing. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in fee structures, platform design, and regional trader access also contribute to price gaps. Monitoring both venues lets you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which platform's participants hold stronger conviction on the outcome.

Key catalysts include roster updates, injury announcements, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head historical matchups. Weather conditions and home-field advantage can also shift trader positioning. As game day approaches, betting action from sportsbooks and casual bettors often influences prediction market prices. Live game developments—early scoring, momentum shifts, and in-game injuries—will drive the most dramatic price moves in the final hours before resolution.