TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 30, 3:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Two teams face off in a game where the margin of victory determines different outcomes. One outcome triggers if a team wins by a margin exceeding a certain number of runs. Another outcome requires an even larger margin of victory for either team.
These markets resolve based on the outcome of a specified baseball game between two teams. The first market resolves to Yes if one team wins by more than 2.5 runs. The second requires a win by more than 1.5 runs for the same team. The third and fourth markets invert the teams, requiring the opposite team to win by more than 1.5 runs and then by more than 2.5 runs, respectively. All markets refer to the same game scheduled for August 30, 2026. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect the aggregated wisdom of informed traders rather than set bookmaker margins. While sportsbooks may post a static spread, prediction markets adjust dynamically based on new data, injuries, or weather conditions. Traders can exploit these differences, especially when analyst predictions or fan polls shift dramatically before the game.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends solely on the official game statistics — specifically whether the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win by more than 1.5 runs. No subjective judgment is involved; the numbers speak for themselves.
Injuries to key players, weather delays, or last-minute lineup changes could all shift this market. Traders will also watch pre-game betting trends and expert analysis for clues. Any surprise performance — like an underdog pitcher stepping up — might cause rapid re-pricing as odds adjust to reflect new information right up to the first pitch.