TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Chicago Bears or Carolina Panthers specifically during the third quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers during the third quarter of their game scheduled for September 13, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold that the winning team must exceed for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If the Chicago Bears win the third quarter by more than the specified margin, the corresponding 'CHI Bears wins 3Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Carolina Panthers win the third quarter by more than the specified margin, the corresponding 'CAR Panthers wins 3Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these markets, and all markets are independent, meaning each resolves based on its own threshold regardless of other outcomes.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on team performance and other factors, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the actual outcome. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts, though both aim to forecast the final result of the 3rd quarter spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 3rd quarter. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the game gets, the more active trading typically becomes, as new information emerges and traders refine their predictions. The current price indicates the market's expectation for the final point difference in the 3rd quarter.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the 3rd quarter of the Bears-Panthers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The final score difference will determine which contracts are winners and losers in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bears or the Panthers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first and second quarters could shift expectations and lead to adjustments in the spread. Even public sentiment, reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.