TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will dominate the second half of a football game by a specific margin. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential between the two teams during the latter half of play, excluding any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (excluding overtime) of the designated football game between the Chicago Bears and the Carolina Panthers. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: if the Bears win by exceeding the stated margin, the corresponding 'Yes' outcome for Bears markets is triggered; conversely, if the Panthers win by exceeding their specified margin, the relevant 'Yes' outcome for Panthers markets resolves. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half, with no contribution from the first half or overtime scores. The thresholds vary incrementally, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of varying degrees of dominance by either team in the game's latter stages.
It’s common to see differences between prediction market odds and those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective prediction of traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the unique dynamics of each market. Analyzing these differences can sometimes reveal valuable insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on their assessment of the game's outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price movements indicate what the crowd believes about the potential performance of both teams in the second half, making it a dynamic representation of collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the Bears-Panthers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as determined by the game’s governing body. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bears or Panthers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first half, such as a dominant showing by one team, could lead to traders adjusting their positions and influencing the price on Kalshi.