TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Chennai Grand Masters Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Chennai Grand Masters?

Volume:
$56,678

Alireza Firouzja

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 26, 9:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Alireza Firouzja

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,349
N/A
N/A
$6,402
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Alireza Firouzja

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arjun Erigaisi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arjun Erigaisi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,860
N/A
N/A
$2,790
Settled
No
polymarket

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,749
N/A
N/A
$3,045
Settled
No
kalshi

Hans Niemann

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,911
N/A
N/A
$1,156
Settled
No
polymarket

Hans Niemann

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dmitry Andreikin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Dmitry Andreikin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$381
N/A
N/A
$366
Settled
No
kalshi

Nihal Sarin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
$656
Settled
No
polymarket

Nihal Sarin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gukesh Dommaraju

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$485
N/A
N/A
$459
Settled
No
polymarket

Gukesh Dommaraju

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pranesh Munirethinam

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Pranesh Munirethinam

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
$111
Settled
No
polymarket

A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the winner of the 2026 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters chess tournament, scheduled for July 16-22, 2026. Markets exist on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with individual contracts for specific players (Arjun Erigaisi, Hans Niemann, Gukesh Dommaraju, Alireza Firouzja, Nihal Sarin, Dmitry Andreikin, Pranesh Munirethinam, Nodirbek Abdusattorov) as well as catch-all categories for other winners.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines resolution only for 8 specific named players with no fallback for other winners, while Polymarket includes catch-all categories (A, B, C, someone else) and explicit cancellation/postponement rules. Polymarket also specifies alphabetical tie-breaking and a hard deadline of August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Hero tip: Before trading on Kalshi, confirm whether the 8 named players represent the full expected field or if other winners are possible. On Polymarket, request clarification on what categories A, B, and C represent. Both platforms should align on whether the tournament can resolve to No/Other or if one of the named players is guaranteed to win. Monitor the official tournament site (chennaigrandmasters.com) for field announcements and any postponement notices.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Offers 8 binary Yes/No markets for named players only (Arjun Erigaisi, Hans Niemann, Gukesh Dommaraju, Alireza Firouzja, Nihal Sarin, Dmitry Andreikin, Pranesh Munirethinam, Nodirbek Abdusattorov). No explicit resolution path for other winners or tournament cancellation. Key quote: 'If [player] wins the 2026 Chennai Grand Masters chess tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Includes 8 named player markets plus undefined categories A, B, C and an explicit 'someone else' category. Specifies hard deadline of August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for winner declaration, with resolution to 'Other' if postponed, canceled, or unresolved by deadline. Includes alphabetical tie-breaking rule. Key quote: 'If this tournament is postponed after August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to Other. If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters 2026, currently scheduled for July 16, 2026 to July 22, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, MGD1 (https://chennaigrandmasters.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The 2026 Chennai Grand Masters tournament will be held from July 16-22, 2026. Resolution is determined by identifying the player who finishes as the tournament winner. The tournament winner is the player who achieves the highest score according to the official tournament rules and scoring system. Any of the designated participants—Arjun Erigaisi, Hans Niemann, Gukesh Dommaraju, Alireza Firouzja, Nihal Sarin, Dmitry Andreikin, Pranesh Munirethinam, or Nodirbek Abdusattorov—may win the tournament. The market resolves to Yes if any of these players wins the 2026 Chennai Grand Masters. In the event the tournament is cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or if the winner cannot be determined through official sources, resolution will be based on the most recent official announcement from the tournament organizers or the International Chess Federation.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the Chennai Grand Masters chess tournament across Polymarket and Kalshi, enabling traders to monitor real-time odds on tournament outcomes. The cross-platform view captures consensus pricing and volume trends as the event approaches, allowing you to compare how different venues value the same outcome. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain insight into where the broader prediction market community stands on the tournament's likely winner, updated continuously as new information and trading activity emerge.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and risk management, then adjust them to balance their book. Prediction markets, by contrast, derive prices from live trader consensus—buy and sell orders reflect collective belief about the outcome. This market-driven approach often captures real-time information faster than traditional sportsbooks. However, sportsbook odds may reflect sharper professional input, while prediction market prices can be influenced by retail trader sentiment. Comparing both sources helps identify where consensus diverges and which venue may be undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between venues typically stem from variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different information sets, risk tolerances, or time horizons, causing each platform's order book to reflect distinct supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, differences in fee structures, withdrawal policies, and market design can influence how aggressively traders participate on each venue. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes persist across platforms due to friction costs and regulatory constraints, meaning prices need not converge perfectly even for identical outcomes.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Tournament draws and pairings, when announced, often trigger repricing as traders assess matchup difficulty. Player form updates, recent tournament results, and any health or personal circumstances affecting top contenders can move prices sharply. Pre-tournament interviews and expert commentary may also influence sentiment. Closer to the event, early-round results will be the dominant driver—strong or weak performances by leading candidates will cause rapid revaluation. Additionally, any changes to the tournament format or schedule could prompt market adjustments. Tracking chess news and official tournament updates is essential for anticipating these moves.