TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 16, 12:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This event assesses the margin of victory in the same soccer match, focusing on whether one team wins by a sufficient number of goals. The outcome varies depending on the size of the winning gap and which team achieves it.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Chapecoense or Bahia wins the match scheduled for August 16, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. The first two markets require Chapecoense to win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, respectively, while the latter two require Bahia to win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, respectively. If the specified condition is met, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the unique dynamics of trader-driven pricing. While sportsbooks may set lines based on analytics and historical data, prediction markets incorporate real-time sentiment and can shift more quickly with new information. Traders might bid the spread higher or lower than sportsbook offerings depending on perceived team form, injuries, or weather conditions, making this market an alternative view of expected outcomes.
This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is determined by the official match result and point differential, which is then compared against contract specifications to settle all positions. Traders should monitor confirmed scores from reputable sports news sources close to the game date for resolution updates.
Injuries to key players, coaching changes, or weather forecasts could shift this market as they affect expected performance. Recent form, head-to-head history, and any disciplinary actions may also influence trader sentiment. Media coverage and pre-game polls can cause short-term swings, while betting trends on Kalshi often reflect broader market sentiment. Any last-minute lineup announcements are likely to produce notable price movement before Aug 16, 2026.