TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $3M
- Kalshi
Above $3M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 24, 9:47 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Chaïm Soutine's Portrait du garçon en bleu will sell for above $2.8 million at Sotheby's auction. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 91.0%. The resolution will be determined by the actual hammer price achieved during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, at 1:00 PM EDT, as reported by Sotheby's. Watch for the auction results on June 24, 2026, when the lot goes under the hammer to see whether bidding reaches the $2.8 million threshold.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the final lot sold price of Chaïm Soutine's "Portrait du garçon en bleu" as displayed on Sotheby's website following the live auction on June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT. The artwork's sale price is evaluated against nine progressive price thresholds ranging from $2M to $3.6M in $0.2M increments. Any price reported in non-USD currency will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. Each threshold operates independently: if the hammer price exceeds a given threshold, that corresponding market resolves affirmatively.
Frequently asked questions
The market resolves on Jun 25, 2026, following the conclusion of the Sotheby's live auction on June 24, 2026. Resolution is determined by the final hammer price achieved for Chaïm Soutine's Portrait du garçon en bleu. The outcome hinges on whether the realized sale price meets or exceeds the $3,000,000 threshold specified in the contract. Auction results are publicly announced and verified through Sotheby's official records, providing clear and objective resolution criteria.
Key catalysts include pre-auction estimates and condition reports released by Sotheby's, comparable sales of other Soutine works, broader art market trends and collector demand for Modernist paintings, and any high-profile collector interest or media coverage. Auction house pre-sale estimates, insurance valuations, and expert commentary on the painting's provenance and condition could shift market odds. Additionally, macroeconomic factors affecting luxury spending and recent results from competing contemporary art sales may influence trader expectations about final hammer price and buyer competition at the June 24 auction.
