TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

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30,526

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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CF Cruz Azul vs. Deportivo Toluca FC
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of CF Cruz Azul vs. Deportivo Toluca FC?

Volume:
$4,321,207

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 8:53 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$855,509
N/A
N/A
$330,203
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (CF Cruz Azul vs. Deportivo Toluca FC)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$50,701
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Toluca

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,075,479
N/A
N/A
$795,187
Settled
No
polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,164
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cruz Azul

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,181,182
N/A
N/A
$623,189
Settled
No
polymarket

CF Cruz Azul

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the probability of a draw in the Liga MX soccer match between CF Cruz Azul and Deportivo Toluca FC. Currently, the consensus probability of a draw is 100.0%, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. The market will resolve based on whether the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the outcome of the Cruz Azul vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026. Keep an eye on the match itself on September 26, 2026, to see if the game proceeds as scheduled and ultimately results in a draw.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms, impacting resolution in the event of a canceled match.Hero tip: Be aware of the differing cancellation policies. Polymarket markets will resolve 'No' or 'Yes' on cancellation, while Kalshi markets will remain open, potentially creating arbitrage opportunities or risks.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve to 'No' (win/loss) or 'Yes' (draw) if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. Resolution is within 90 minutes + stoppage time.
  • Kalshi: Markets remain open until the game is completed if it is postponed or canceled. Resolution is within 90 minutes + stoppage time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between CF Cruz Azul and Deportivo Toluca FC.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Cruz Azul vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer match scheduled for September 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, but excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Cruz Azul, a win for Toluca, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team winning within regular time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the teams are level after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the rare event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will instead resolve to a fair price following platform-specific procedures. The governing league’s official result determines all resolutions, and the platform explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or its entities.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Cruz Azul vs. Toluca match. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $4,321,207, with $3,824,351 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the result of this Liga MX contest. The consensus view, based on trading activity, suggests a particular outcome is currently favored, but these probabilities are dynamic and reflect the collective intelligence of the prediction market participants. This provides a real-time assessment of expectations for the match.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, incorporating a profit margin. Prediction markets, however, are driven by the wisdom of the crowd; prices reflect what traders are willing to pay based on their own research and insights. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly early on, as the market discovers and incorporates information.