TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$222,594,306
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,033,877
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,328,926,524
576,847
Markets across
14,568
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,055
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the women's college basketball matchup between Central Arkansas Bears and Bellarmine Knights scheduled for February 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. The market resolves based on which team wins the game, with provisions for postponements and cancellations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory—both possible outcomes (Central Arkansas win and Bellarmine win) are stated to resolve to Yes, which violates binary market logic. Polymarket uses standard categorical resolution (winner name). These incompatible structures make cross-platform arbitrage impossible and suggest a critical documentation or platform error on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not trade this group across platforms until Kalshi's logic is clarified. The Kalshi market as documented cannot function (both outcomes cannot resolve identically). Verify with Kalshi support whether this is a documentation error, a true Yes/Yes structure, or a missing No outcome. Polymarket's logic is sound and standard.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Both Central Arkansas win and Bellarmine win resolve to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility for a binary market. Key Quote: 'If Central Arkansas wins...resolves to Yes. If Bellarmine wins...resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Categorical resolution: Central Arkansas win resolves to 'Central Arkansas Bears', Bellarmine win resolves to 'Bellarmine Knights'. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split) provisions. Key Quote: 'If the Central Arkansas Bears win, the market will resolve to Central Arkansas Bears. If the Bellarmine Knights win, the market will resolve to Bellarmine Knights.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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