TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Liga Portugal soccer match between CD Nacional and Estoril Praia scheduled for March 15, 2026. Three markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the three possible outcomes: Nacional win, Estoril win, or draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation resolution logic differs between platforms. Polymarket explicitly handles cancellation with asymmetric outcomes (draw YES, wins NO), while Kalshi lacks explicit cancellation language, creating ambiguity in edge-case resolution.Hero Tip:
Monitor for any official Liga Portugal announcements regarding postponement or cancellation risk. If cancellation occurs, expect Polymarket draw YES and win NO outcomes, but Kalshi outcomes may require manual adjudication. Trade with caution on cancellation-sensitive positions.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Nacional win, Estoril win, draw). Draw market resolves YES on cancellation with no make-up; win markets resolve NO. Primary source is Liga Portugal official statistics within 2 hours, fallback to credible reporting consensus. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Three outcome markets (Estoril wins, Nacional wins, Tie) presented as independent YES/NO propositions. No explicit cancellation clause provided. All reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties. Scope and fallback sources not specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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