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CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC?

Volume:
$4,578,372

Toluca

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 18, 11:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Toluca

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,796,667
N/A
N/A
$943,711
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Deportivo Toluca FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$190,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Guadalajara

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,624,283
N/A
N/A
$1,192,033
Settled
No
polymarket

CD Guadalajara

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165,652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$692,131
N/A
N/A
$433,825
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$109,428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Liga MX soccer match between CD Guadalajara and Deportivo Toluca FC on July 18, 2026. Aggregating data from Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability for a Deportivo Toluca FC victory stands at 100.0%, with CD Guadalajara winning at 0.1%. Resolution will be determined by official Liga MX match statistics published on ligamx.net/cancha/partidos, with credible reporting consensus as backup if official data is unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the final whistle on July 18, 2026, which will trigger resolution on July 19, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi apply identical resolution logic: match outcome determined by official Liga MX result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with consistent treatment of postponements and cancellations across all three outcome markets.Primary resolution logic: Official Liga MX match statistics as published on ligamx.net/cancha/partidos, with credible reporting consensus as secondary source if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only (no extra time or penalties)
  • Guadalajara win market resolves Yes if Guadalajara scores more goals than Toluca; otherwise No
  • Toluca win market resolves Yes if Toluca scores more goals than Guadalajara; otherwise No
  • Draw market resolves Yes if both teams have equal goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise No
  • If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed
  • If match is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, Guadalajara and Toluca win markets resolve No, while Draw market resolves Yes
  • Official final result as declared by Liga MX or governing body is binding; post-resolution score revisions are not considered

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Match Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is completed on a new date. Resolution then occurs based on the final result of the rescheduled match.
  • Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, Guadalajara win and Toluca win markets resolve to No. The Draw market resolves to Yes.
  • Official Statistics Delay: If Liga MX does not publish official final match statistics within 2 hours after match conclusion, resolution may use consensus of credible reporting sources instead.
  • Scope Limitation: Resolution is based strictly on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from resolution scope.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the match concludes and official Liga MX statistics are published, or within 2 hours of match conclusion if official statistics are unavailable and credible reporting consensus is used instead.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Saturday, July 18, 2026 between CD Guadalajara and Deportivo Toluca FC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Guadalajara vs Toluca Liga MX match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded from consideration. The match outcome is categorized into three mutually exclusive results: a Guadalajara victory, a Toluca victory, or a tie. If the scheduled match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established procedures rather than to any specific outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds reflect what thousands of individual traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing the two can reveal where public sentiment on this matchup diverges from professional bookmaker positioning, offering perspective on potential value or consensus shifts.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in their user bases, fee structures, and liquidity depth. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and information sets, so the same event can reflect slightly different probability estimates. Additionally, order flow timing and market depth on each venue influence how quickly prices respond to new information. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify arbitrage opportunities or spot which venue's traders are more confident in a particular outcome.

Key injury announcements, team lineup confirmations, and recent form shifts can all trigger significant price movement in this market. Betting syndicate activity or sharp money flowing into one side may signal informed positioning. Weather conditions, referee assignments, or late tactical changes announced before kickoff often spark repricing. Additionally, any official statements from either club about player availability or strategic adjustments can shift trader sentiment. Monitor team news and pre-match press conferences closely, as these catalysts frequently drive volatility in the final hours before the match begins.