TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 2:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This event monitors the result of a soccer match between CD Fatima and Castelo, emphasizing the winning margin during regular play. The outcome is determined by whether either team achieves a substantial advantage within the initial 90 minutes plus added time, without accounting for extended play or tie-breaking procedures.
This event assesses four possible winning-margin conditions for the CD Fatima vs Castelo Taca de Portugal match set for August 29, 2026, all evaluated strictly during regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time) and excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' resolution occurs if CD Fatima wins by more than 2.5 goals, CD Fatima wins by more than 1.5 goals, Castelo wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Castelo wins by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves based on the first met condition among these four differential-threshold rules, each specifying a particular goal-margin victory for either competitor.
Compared to traditional sportsbook odds, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook, incorporating a wider range of trader perspectives. While sportsbooks may set lines based on broader public betting trends and analyst inputs, prediction markets let participants directly price outcomes, sometimes leading to tighter spreads or different favorites.
On Kalshi, this market uses trader submissions to set its current probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects aggregated expectations about the regulation time spread, with volume of $2,207 indicating trader interest. As the match approaches, any updates to team news, form, or head-to-head statistics can cause rapid shifts in the probability displayed.
This market resolves around Aug 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the final score after regulation time, specifically whether CD Fatima’s victory margin exceeds 2.5 goals, as reported by official match records.
In the coming weeks, coach decisions, player injuries, and recent match performance will heavily influence this market. Key moments like lineup announcements or disciplinary actions could cause swift probability changes. As Aug 29, 2026 nears, real-time updates from the game itself — such as early goals or tactical shifts — may dramatically reshape trader sentiment and drive volume to $2,207.