TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 2:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between CD Fatima and Castelo, focusing solely on the result after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time. It excludes outcomes determined during extra time or penalty shootouts, emphasizing the immediate conclusion of regulation time. The resolution depends entirely on which team wins or if the match ends in a draw during this period.
The event resolves based on the result of the CD Fatima vs Castelo professional Taca de Portugal soccer match originally scheduled for August 29, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If CD Fatima wins within regulation time, the 'CD Fatima' market resolves to Yes. If Castelo wins within regulation time, the 'Castelo' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets exclusively consider regulation time outcomes and do not account for results from extra time or penalty shootouts.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the way traders price risk and information. While sportsbooks may set lines based on broader public opinion and adjusted margins, prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of active participants, potentially offering sharper or more nuanced pricing depending on recent news, team form, or other factors influencing the match.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the odds for this market through their buy and sell orders. The current implied probability reflects the balance of bets placed on each possible outcome, adjusting dynamically as new information emerges or trading volume changes. This decentralized pricing mechanism allows participants to express their expectations freely based on available data up to the event.
This market resolves around Aug 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the final score after regulation time, with no consideration for extra time or penalties, and will be settled based on official match records and widely accepted sports news sources.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or significant recent performance shifts could move this market as the match approaches. Additionally, broader factors such as weather conditions, referee announcements, or even shifting betting trends on Kalshi can influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds. Any new information that alters the perceived likelihood of each team winning in regulation time may cause rapid price adjustments.