TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería
Volume:
$527,736
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
CD Castellón and UD Almería will compete in a La Liga 2 (Spanish second division) match on April 2, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with three possible results: a Castellón victory, an Almería victory, or a draw. This is a standard league fixture with no special circumstances anticipated.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Castellón win, draw, Almería win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating a logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, buying all three outcomes at any price guarantees exactly one YES payout. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for any match result, making them redundant. Arbitrage or hedge positions carefully — the platforms settle fundamentally different contract structures for the same event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures the market as three mutually exclusive binary outcomes where exactly one resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. The draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up. Key quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES for any single match outcome (one YES for Castellón win, one YES for Almería win, one YES for tie). All three markets resolve YES simultaneously based on the actual match result. Key quote: 'If Castellon wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Almeria wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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