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406,422

Markets across

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2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Catalunya Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position
polymarket
kalshi

Catalunya Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position

Volume:
$711,511

George Russell

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 3:26 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

George Russell

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$95,887
N/A
N/A
$52,603
Settled
Yes
polymarket

George Russell

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$38,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$176,358
N/A
N/A
$146,487
Settled
No
polymarket

Kimi Antonelli

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Max Verstappen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75,885
N/A
N/A
$64,240
Settled
No
polymarket

Max Verstappen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66,197
N/A
N/A
$54,853
Settled
No
polymarket

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lando Norris

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,185
N/A
N/A
$45,211
Settled
No
polymarket

Lando Norris

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,309
N/A
N/A
$40,834
Settled
No
polymarket

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,961
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Charles Leclerc

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,745
N/A
N/A
$32,735
Settled
No
polymarket

Charles Leclerc

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,317
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Isack Hadjar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,827
N/A
N/A
$4,857
Settled
No
polymarket

Isack Hadjar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,794
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Fernando Alonso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,980
N/A
N/A
$4,980
Settled
No
polymarket

Fernando Alonso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$492
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nico Hulkenberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,162
N/A
N/A
$3,162
Settled
No
polymarket

Nico Hulkenberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Liam Lawson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Liam Lawson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$786
N/A
N/A
$786
Settled
No
kalshi

Pierre Gasly

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,067
N/A
N/A
$1,067
Settled
No
polymarket

Pierre Gasly

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Sainz Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$973
N/A
N/A
$973
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 50

Intro

This market tracks which driver will achieve the fastest qualifying lap time in Q3 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, George Russell commands a consensus probability of 99.5% for pole position. Resolution will be determined by the Official Formula 1 website and FIA official qualifying session results, with grid penalties applied after qualifying not affecting the outcome. Watch the qualifying session on June 13, 2026, to see if Russell secures the fastest lap time in Q3.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve on the driver with the fastest valid Q3 qualifying lap time on the originally scheduled date of June 13, 2026, independent of grid penalties or starting position changes.Primary resolution logic: Official Formula 1 website (https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races) and FIA official qualifying session results

Core resolution logic:

  • Pole position is awarded to the driver who sets the fastest valid lap time during Q3 qualifying on June 13, 2026
  • Grid penalties, disqualifications, or starting grid changes applied after qualifying do not affect pole position resolution
  • Resolution is based on official FIA qualifying results and Formula 1 website records
  • Only one driver can achieve pole position; exactly one market in the group will resolve to Yes
  • All other driver-specific markets in the group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Race Cancellation or Rescheduling: If the 2026 Catalunya Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after June 20, 2026, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi's explicit resolution rule for this scenario is not provided; assume non-resolution pending official guidance.
  • Grid Penalty After Qualifying: If a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, that driver still wins the pole position market. The market resolves based on qualifying performance, not final grid position.
  • Placeholder Drivers (Driver A, B, C, D, E): Polymarket includes five placeholder driver entries ('Driver A' through 'Driver E'). These are likely placeholders for late-season driver changes or reserve drivers. If no actual driver matching these placeholders competes, these markets resolve to No.
  • Any Other Driver Market: Polymarket includes a catch-all 'any other driver' market. This resolves to Yes only if a driver not explicitly listed in the group achieves pole position.
  • Qualifying Session Validity: Both platforms require a valid Q3 qualifying session. If Q3 is not held or is voided, resolution is contingent on FIA's official determination of pole position.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the conclusion of the Q3 qualifying session on June 13, 2026, once FIA and Formula 1 official results are published. Markets settle within 24-48 hours of official confirmation.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 13, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 20, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Kalshi

Pole position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) of the Grand Prix, as determined by the FIA's published classification. If qualifying does not progress to Q3 due to weather, red flags, or format changes, pole position is awarded based on the FIA's official qualifying results for that event. Pole position is determined exclusively by the official Final Qualifying Classification and is not affected by subsequent grid penalties or starting-order adjustments. Sprint race qualifying sessions are not considered for this market.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the Catalunya Grand Prix pole position outcome across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the leading contender's implied probability, total liquidity, and 24-hour volume to show consensus expectations among prediction market participants. By tracking multiple venues simultaneously, the dashboard reveals which driver the market favors most heavily and how conviction has shifted over time. This cross-platform view helps traders identify the strongest consensus signal before the 2026 F1 qualifying session at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect sharper, more dynamic pricing than traditional sportsbooks because they aggregate real-time trader conviction without fixed margins. Sportsbooks typically build in a house edge and update less frequently, while prediction markets adjust continuously as new information emerges. For the Catalunya pole position, market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines based on recent practice session performance, weather forecasts, or technical updates closer to qualifying. Comparing both sources helps identify value and track how professional and retail sentiment differ on driver prospects.

Free practice sessions leading up to qualifying will reveal car performance, setup changes, and driver confidence levels, shifting market odds accordingly. Weather forecasts—especially rain predictions—can dramatically alter pole favorites since wet conditions suit different drivers and chassis setups. Mechanical failures, penalties, or grid position adjustments announced by the FIA will also trigger repricing. Driver lineup changes, engine upgrades, or fuel regulations clarifications closer to the event may shift expectations. Real-time qualifying telemetry and Q1 and Q2 results will cause the sharpest moves as traders gain concrete data on relative pace just before the final pole-deciding Q3 session.