TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The markets assess the critical reception of the video game Castlevania: Belmont's Curse by tracking its Metacritic score one week after release. Each market corresponds to a different score threshold, reflecting varying levels of critical acclaim.
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on the Metacritic score of Castlevania: Belmont's Curse, measured seven days after the game's release at 10:00AM ET. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, with outcomes ranging from 'Above 10' to 'Above 95'. If the Metascore meets or exceeds the designated threshold for a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. When no platform is specified, the first platform listed on the Metacritic page for the game will be used to determine the score. It is important to note that neither Metacritic nor any associated marks constitute an endorsement of these markets or any affiliation with the platform.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many analyst forecasts for the Castlevania Metacritic score. While some analysts predict a score in the high 70s, this market reflects a wider range of possibilities, with significant trading activity across several score brackets. This divergence suggests that the wisdom of the crowd, as expressed through Kalshi, anticipates more uncertainty than traditional pre-release analysis. It’s important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment of the game’s potential critical reception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different Metacritic score ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that score range being the final outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the game's likely score. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and sentiment, providing a real-time estimate of the expected Metacritic score. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final Metacritic score for Castlevania: Belmont's Curse will be used to determine the winning contract. The score will be sourced from the official Metacritic website and must be a final, published score. Any updates or revisions to the score after the initial publication will not be considered. Traders should monitor the official Metacritic page as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Early reviews from prominent gaming publications will be a major catalyst, potentially shifting the odds towards higher or lower score ranges. Any news regarding potential bugs or performance issues could also negatively affect the market. Furthermore, significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in social media and online forums, could influence trading activity. Positive word-of-mouth and strong pre-release buzz could drive prices upward, while negative reactions could push them down. Keep an eye on these factors as Oct 22, 2026 approaches.
