TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 2:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks individual player performance in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specific players score a certain number of touchdowns. Each market evaluates different players and touchdown thresholds, allowing participants to bet on varied scoring outcomes.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player scores the required number of touchdowns in the designated game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual touchdowns scored during the game. All markets are independent, and the resolution depends solely on the player's performance in that specific matchup. The markets cover various players from both teams, each with thresholds of scoring one or more touchdowns, providing multiple avenues for prediction.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of a continuously updating market versus a static sportsbook line. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can take either the 'buy' (yes) or 'sell' (no) side, and the market adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. The more traders who believe a certain number of touchdowns will be scored, the higher the price for contracts predicting that outcome will rise, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total number of touchdowns scored in the Carolina versus Cleveland game will be the determining factor. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be verified against trusted sports data sources. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key offensive players on either the Carolina or Cleveland teams would be a major catalyst, as this directly affects scoring potential. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also influence the market, as inclement conditions often lead to fewer passing attempts and touchdowns. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategies announced leading up to the game could also move the market. Finally, any significant news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role.