TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 2:11 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a football game between Carolina and Atlanta. Outcomes depend entirely on which team leads by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter, with varying thresholds for victory.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference at the end of the first quarter of the designated Carolina vs Atlanta Pro Football game. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the stated team wins the quarter by exceeding the specified point margin—ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points—while a 'No' outcome occurs if the team does not meet or exceed that margin. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and all markets are independent, each with its own threshold for resolution. The markets cover both teams winning by various margins, allowing for multiple potential 'Yes' resolutions depending on the actual score differential.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information aggregation. Sportsbooks set their lines based on quantitative models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. Over time, prediction market prices often become more accurate than traditional odds as more information becomes available and is incorporated by traders. It’s common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, though discrepancies can still occur due to differing incentives and market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Buyers are expressing a belief that the spread will be different than the current price, while sellers believe the spread will be closer to the current price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is dynamic, constantly adjusting based on supply and demand, and influenced by new information and trading activity.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the first quarter spread of the Carolina vs Atlanta game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official spread as determined by the game’s official statistics. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual spread, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100 per contract, minus any applicable fees.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Carolina or Atlanta teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news related to team strategy or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Public perception, reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.