TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Tie
all
3 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 8, 2026
Closed: Sep 8, 5:02 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group forecasts the outcome of a single EFL Championship soccer match between Cardiff City FC and Stoke City FC on September 8, 2026. Markets predict whether Cardiff will win, Stoke will win, or the game will end in a draw, all within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Cancellation of the match leads to differing resolution outcomes across platforms.Hero tip: Consider the cancellation risk when trading. Limitless markets have a 'Draw' bias in case of cancellation, while Polymarket markets favor the opposing team.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to 'No' (loss for Cardiff/Stoke) if the game is canceled with no make-up game. Uses official statistics or fallback sources (Flashscore, Sofascore) for resolution.
- Limitless: Resolves to 'YES' (draw) if the game is canceled with no make-up game. Uses official statistics or governing body recognition for resolution.
Polymarket
This event is for the upcoming EFL Championship game, scheduled for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 between Cardiff City FC and Stoke City FC.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner of the Cardiff vs Stoke professional EFL Championship soccer match scheduled for September 8, 2026, based exclusively on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Three distinct outcomes are possible: Cardiff win, Stoke win, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team securing a victory within regulation time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regulation, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price as per the defined rules. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Limitless
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for September 8, 2026, 18:45 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can diverge because each platform attracts different user bases and has unique liquidity conditions. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one venue might see heavier trading from fans who value recent momentum, while the other could reflect broader betting trends. These differences in participation and depth often lead to variations in implied probabilities, especially when there’s limited volume of $207,076 to smooth out price swings between the two sites.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions on game day, and tactical changes announced by coaches can all shift this market. Momentum swings during early match play, disciplinary actions such as red cards, or even shifting betting sentiment as major traders place large positions may cause rapid price adjustments on Polymarket and Kalshi before the final whistle.
