TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins the first half of an upcoming football game, with different thresholds for point differentials. Each outcome represents a specific margin by which one team must lead at halftime for the market to settle positively.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential at the end of the first half of the designated game. For markets where the Carolina Panthers win, resolution occurs if their lead exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 1.5 to 13.5 points). For markets where the Cleveland Browns win, resolution occurs if their lead exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). Only points scored during the first half are considered; any points from the second half are irrelevant. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold represents a distinct outcome, and the game must proceed as scheduled for resolution. If the game is postponed or canceled, all markets will be void.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, as they incentivize participants to be well-informed. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value, especially if they diverge significantly from what’s priced into this market. It’s always wise to compare both before making a decision.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half of the game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread established during the first half of the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The contracts representing the correct spread will settle at 100, while those representing incorrect spreads will settle at 0. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on the actual game results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Panthers or the Browns would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also impact the spread. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also affect trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price fluctuations as traders react to new information or attempt to capitalize on perceived opportunities.