TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 3:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Morocco will defeat Canada by more than 1.5 goals during regulation time of their FIFA World Cup match. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Morocco wins by more than 1.5 goals—stands at 89.0%, while Morocco wins by more than 2.5 goals carries 11.0% probability. Resolution is determined by the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, as reported by FIFA. Watch the match on July 4, 2026, when the 90-minute regulation period concludes to see if Morocco's margin of victory exceeds the 1.5-goal threshold.
The event measures the goal differential between Canada and Morocco during regulation time of their FIFA World Cup match on July 4, 2026, including the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties. Outcomes resolve based on whether Canada wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, or whether Morocco wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The goal differential is calculated by subtracting the losing team's goals from the winning team's goals during the regulation period only.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook spreads depending on information flow and trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value that bookmakers have priced differently, though both should be evaluated independently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; as new information emerges or trading interest shifts, prices adjust in real time. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how quickly prices move, so periods of high activity typically produce tighter, more efficient pricing than low-volume windows.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the Canada vs Morocco match concludes and the final regulation time score is confirmed. The outcome is determined by the goal differential at the end of full time, verified against credible public sources covering the event. No extra time or penalty shootout counts toward resolution. Traders should monitor official match reports and sports news outlets to track when the result becomes final and the market settles.
Key catalysts for this market include team news such as injuries to star players, lineup announcements, and recent form leading into the match. Betting market movement and sportsbook line shifts often precede prediction market repricing as sharp bettors react to new information. Weather conditions, venue factors, and historical head-to-head patterns can also influence trader positioning. As kickoff approaches, any official confirmations about squad availability or tactical changes may trigger significant price swings in this market.