TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 3:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Morocco will defeat Canada by a score of 1-0 in their FIFA World Cup soccer match on regulation time. On Kalshi, Morocco winning 1-0 stands at 44.0%, while a 1-1 draw is at 22.0%. The market resolves based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, as determined by official FIFA records. Watch for the match kickoff on July 4, 2026, when the actual result will determine the resolution outcome.
This event resolves based on the final score of the Canada vs Morocco FIFA World Cup soccer game after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time, not including extra time or penalties. Resolution occurs for any specific correct score outcome, encompassing draws (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3), Morocco victories (ranging from 1-0 to 5-1), and Canada victories (ranging from 1-0 to 4-1). Each possible regulation time score combination represents a distinct resolution path, allowing participants to predict the precise final scoreline of the match.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market aggregates real-money forecasts from participants who profit by accurately predicting the correct score, creating a crowd-sourced probability estimate. Many analysts find prediction market prices competitive with or more efficient than sportsbook lines, particularly for niche outcomes like exact scorelines where traditional betting volume may be thinner.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible correct score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the cumulative bids and asks from all participants, with the spread between buy and sell prices tightening as liquidity increases. Traders profit by purchasing undervalued outcomes or selling overvalued ones, and this competitive dynamic continuously adjusts prices toward fair value as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, after the Canada vs Morocco match concludes during regulation time. The outcome is determined by the final score at the end of the 90-minute regulation period, verified against credible public sources. Once the match result is confirmed and official, the market settles to the correct score outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning scoreline receive their payout, while incorrect predictions expire worthless.
Several factors can shift prices in this market before resolution. Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—often triggers sharp repricing, particularly for key players. Betting market movement and analyst commentary can signal shifting expectations. Weather conditions on match day may influence scoring patterns. Early match momentum and goals scored during the first half typically drive the most dramatic price swings, as traders update their probability estimates based on live performance. Late-match developments, such as red cards or tactical adjustments, can also create significant volatility in the final scoreline odds.